Santorum Could Take Iowa

Jan 3rd, 2012

Bear with me.

Jake Horowitz wrote a week ago:

"Back in 1975, Georgia's Democratic governor Jimmy Carter pulled off an upset to become president, and his surprise victory in the 1976 Iowa caucuses played a signficant role in his success. Carter went door-to-door and shook people's hands in order to sway Iowans' votes.

Today, this kind of in-person, on-the-groud campaigning is no longer a focus of the campaign, as Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and televised presidential debates have taken precedence (debate viewership has been staggering this electoral cycle). Yet, with the race for this year's nomination still very much undecided, the momentum that a caucus victory provides remains important."

"The results will help to winnow down the field to the only legitimate contenders (bye bye Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry)."

With all due respect, his assumption that Santorum has no chance may be dead wrong. This is why actual campaigning still matters. Like Ron Paul, Santorum has a better ground game than most of his competition. Santorum is polling very strong right now and there is also something else at play;

Amanda Marcotte wrote yesterday that what truly defines the Iowa caucus this year is a single issue:

"To really understand Iowa, you need to understand the primacy of abortion as an issue to the Christian right. It’s baffling how little attention this gets, considering the tendency of all the candidates---and especially those whose numbers in Iowa, like Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, eclipse what they can get in most other states---to make frequent statements about how they consider banning abortion to be a number one priority and the big issue of our time. Economic issues are confusing and the difference between candidates is too hazy to matter to the Republican base. Foreign policy doesn’t seem to matter that much at all to voters this year. But abortion is a nice, simple issue, and the candidates by and large seem to get what the media doesn’t: The more you pound the table and stereotype women who get abortions as heartless slatterns, the better you do in the polls."

If she is correct, and I believe that she is to a degree, Santorum just might win this thing. Bachmann's campaign is not only hopeless, but her paranoid accusations against former staffer Kent Sorenson might have handed her followers to the only other rabidly pro-choice candidate.

It could be the perfect storm.

As for the broader implications, anything that gets another few hundred thousand would-be voters to Google the word "Santorum" is fine with me.