In Iowa, where the opponents of marriage equality managed to recall three of the state's Supreme Court justices for affirming the right of gays and lesbians to marry in 2010, comes this news:
"A majority of Iowans oppose passage of a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.
The poll found that 38 percent favor a legislative initiative to pass a constitutional amendment, while 56 percent are against. Six percent aren’t sure."
The numbers show a slight rise in support from a similar poll conducted not long after the successful conservative attack on the judiciary. Again, the importance of center-left voter turnout is demonstrated.
Check out the video below. Can anyone tell me what the hell kind of device Wolf Blitzer is using to illustrate his point at the roughly the 12 second mark?
"Ah, Republican love for democracy at work. And let's not minimize the fact that the one and only Karl Rove is the one to share the news with viewers.
After six hours of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum exchanging leads by the barest of margins, suddenly the vote counts dropped for Santorum and rose for Romney, so that Santorum's 20+ vote lead dropped to 4 votes. Rove earnestly explains that there was a transposition on entry of final totals, and when it was adjusted, it went to Mitt Romney's favor.
That left only the votes in Keokuk outstanding. Karl Rove explains that both candidates have agreed to what the final tally was for that precinct, leaving Mitt with the win by 14 votes.
How convenient. We can't have the GOP Anointed One usurped by an interloper, even if it is another GOP party acolyte. Even more convenient that Rove is the guy who has the story first. Had it, or wrote it? Which?"
We can't embed the clip from her post HERE, but after watching it, Karoli's questions are more than reasonable.
It was an ugly last few days and a bruising battle.
Jeff Zeleny notes the generational gap that was evident in Ron Paul's very close, third place finish:
"The surveys found that Mr. Paul had far outpaced his rivals among caucus goers under 40. But he dropped behind Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum among voters 40 and older. Even though older caucus goers made up a much larger portion of the electorate, Mr. Paul’s outsize lead among younger voters kept him competitive."
It's official; Mitt Romney is in serious trouble. Sure, he "won" the Iowa Caucus by an entirety of eight votes. But, he is still in very serious trouble.
It's not merely the near-upset by Santorum that we predicted might happen yesterday which endangers him. Nor is it the strong likelihood that Romney will be unable to resist pandering to the Dominionist voters who nearly defeated him.
No. What Romney should be very afraid of is Newt Gingrich.
"Back in 1975, Georgia's Democratic governor Jimmy Carter pulled off an upset to become president, and his surprise victory in the 1976 Iowa caucuses played a signficant role in his success. Carter went door-to-door and shook people's hands in order to sway Iowans' votes.
Today, this kind of in-person, on-the-groud campaigning is no longer a focus of the campaign, as Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and televised presidential debates have taken precedence (debate viewership has been staggering this electoral cycle). Yet, with the race for this year's nomination still very much undecided, the momentum that a caucus victory provides remains important."
"The results will help to winnow down the field to the only legitimate contenders (bye bye Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry)."
With all due respect, his assumption that Santorum has no chance may be dead wrong. This is why actual campaigning still matters. Like Ron Paul, Santorum has a better ground game than most of his competition. Santorum is polling very strong right now and there is also something else at play;
Amanda Marcotte wrote yesterday that what truly defines the Iowa caucus this year is a single issue:
"To really understand Iowa, you need to understand the primacy of abortion as an issue to the Christian right. It’s baffling how little attention this gets, considering the tendency of all the candidates---and especially those whose numbers in Iowa, like Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, eclipse what they can get in most other states---to make frequent statements about how they consider banning abortion to be a number one priority and the big issue of our time. Economic issues are confusing and the difference between candidates is too hazy to matter to the Republican base. Foreign policy doesn’t seem to matter that much at all to voters this year. But abortion is a nice, simple issue, and the candidates by and large seem to get what the media doesn’t: The more you pound the table and stereotype women who get abortions as heartless slatterns, the better you do in the polls."
If she is correct, and I believe that she is to a degree, Santorum just might win this thing. Bachmann's campaign is not only hopeless, but her paranoid accusations against former staffer Kent Sorenson might have handed her followers to the only other rabidly pro-choice candidate.
It could be the perfect storm.
As for the broader implications, anything that gets another few hundred thousand would-be voters to Google the word "Santorum" is fine with me.
Jonah Goldberg actually makes some sense in an otherwise (surprise) very smarmy piece:
"The real problem with the Iowa caucuses is simply that they confer too much entrenched arbitrary power on one state in perpetuity. For instance, without the Iowa caucuses we would never have wasted billions of dollars on environmentally damaging and economically wasteful ethanol subsidies."
Although Goldberg lamenting the sad state of the environment should raise eyebrows, he's correct. These ridiculous subsidies, arguably the last several decades most bi-partisan domestic boondoggle, would never have been so popular had they not been tied to the nation's highest volume corn producer and its place at the front of the race.
Although the subsidies have finally been allowed to lapse this year, the ill effect they had on both energy and agriculture will ripple for years.
Yesterday, I wrote that I thought Rep. Bachmann's handling of the news that her Iowa campaign Chairman, Kent Soreson, had defected to the Ron Paul camp was "crazy and conspiratorial." I resisted the urge to declare that I believed it to be an outright lie. However, Mike Enos, Bachmann's political director in Iowa, issued a denial that nearly seemed to do just that:
"I can say unequivocally that Kent Sorenson’s decision was, in no way financially motivated," Enos said in his statement. "While I personally disagree with Kent’s decision, and plan to stay with Michele Bachmann because I truly believe in her, I cannot, in good conscious watch a good man like Kent Sorenson be attacked as a 'sell-out.'"
Despite his stated intention of remaining with her campaign team, he later resigned. This seems to indicate that he was purged from the campaign for insisting on rational truth.
Rep. Bachmann is, unsurprisingly, doubling down:
"No one else knows about that conversation other than Kent Sorenson and myself."
It's extremely implausible that Bachmann would not have revealed this conversation to her team immediately to begin planning damage control. The reaction of Enos and his subsequent break from her team expose not only Bachmann's executive inability but, also her apparent mental instability.
The Ron Paul camp insists her claim is fiction. Paul himself is quoted by KCAU:
"He called up and asked if he could join us and I said 'That's a great idea!' He's somebody I've known for a long time and we've helped him in the past."
Sorenson appeared on CNN to declare that the alleged conversation "never happened."
I am no fan of Ron Paul. I find him absurd. But, Bachmann is coming out of this looking both desperate and delusional.
With four days to go before the Iowa Circus, I expect this all to get even more entertaining.
The latest round of crazy involves a bit player making a big splash just ahead of the Iowa GOP caucus. TheDes Moines Registerreports:
"In a stunning, late-breaking Iowa caucus turnabout, the state chairman for presidential candidate Michele Bachmann ditched her campaign Wednesday night to endorse Ron Paul, a rival in the race for the GOP nomination.
The defection of Kent Sorenson, an Iowa state senator, came just six days before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, and caught the Bachmann campaign by surprise. Sorenson had chaired Bachmann’s caucus efforts here for months, and even attended a Bachmann event in Indianola on Wednesday afternoon just hours before appearing at a Paul rally in Des Moines to announce his endorsement."
Definitely one of the funniest things I have seen so far in the GOP campaign cycle. During a meet and greet with average Iowans today, one man decided to tell Newt how really feels. "Ya know somethin? You're a fucking asshole." Arguably, it was the most honest moment broadcast by CNN in the last decade. Via TPM
This is nuts. Michele Bachmann has topped Ron Paul and achieved the electorally meaningless victory of winning the Iowa Straw Poll. There are so many levels on which this is disastrous for the broader Republican brand.
In November, conservative Tea Party-driven Iowans voted out three members of the State Supreme Court for having the audacity to read the Constitution correctly and provide a clear opinion favoring marriage equality. The state legislature has moved forward with plans to amend their constitution in order to reverse the decision and deny LGBT citizens their rights. The measure passed their House and may be dead in the senate, although it's clear the fight is not over.
Meet Zach Wahls. He spoke before the body a few days ago. As the product of a two mother upbring, the guy quite frankly makes an argument for a lot more kids to be raised by same-sex couples. It is a profoundly moving and impressive thing to see.
In the wake of the removal by voters of three Iowa State Supreme Court Justices following the decision allowing same-sex marriages, the anti-gay right attempted to push forward an amendment to their state constitution banning such marriages. State Senate Leader Mike Gronstal stopped the initiative cold.
He is a politician who deserves our praise in these difficult days. A petition expressing support for his strength is available here. Please sign it.
