It was an ugly last few days and a bruising battle.
Jeff Zeleny notes the generational gap that was evident in Ron Paul's very close, third place finish:
"The surveys found that Mr. Paul had far outpaced his rivals among caucus goers under 40. But he dropped behind Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum among voters 40 and older. Even though older caucus goers made up a much larger portion of the electorate, Mr. Paul’s outsize lead among younger voters kept him competitive."
Scott Galupo examines this further. He thinks the dismissal and ridicule of Paul by the other hopefuls and the party establishment is a serious misstep:
"If anyone attracted new and younger voters to the caucuses, it was Ron Paul—who I can say with certainty will not be the nominee.
Romney, for his part, does well among wealthy, older voters. Tonight’s results are mildly troubling for Romney—but more than mildly troubling for the GOP long-term.
The party appeals mostly to a segment of the country that’s literally dying."
Even Sarah Palin seems to recognize the danger of "marginalizing" Paul's supporters. (Video at the link. BTW, WTF is up with her hair?)
What deserves more attention in the coming weeks, as the GOP beats the drums louder for war with Iran, is the foreign policy disconnect that genuinely defines Paul's younger supporters.
Shannon McCaffrey wonders if Newt can afford his revenge on Romney:
"A key question is whether Gingrich will have the cash to wage an effective assault. A spokesman said he'd raised roughly $9 million in the last three months of the year but that he would spend most of it to compete in Iowa. It is also unclear how much money the pro-Gingrich PACs have raised."
I think McCaffrey underestimates how vicious Newt can be. He just might spend a great deal of his own money to keep this race on the level of a knife fight. He has clearly taken Romney's negative campaigning personally. As a profound narcissist, he's not likely to let that go.
TPM sticks a fork in Rick Perry:
"With Perry’s campaign likely finished, the book is closing on one of the most swift and complete collapses in primary history. For a brief moment, the nomination seemed Perry’s to lose as he entered the race in August leading national and state polls and generating huge excitement among movement conservatives as a credible, electable alternative to Mitt Romney. Instead, Romney effectively raised doubts about his general election viability and conservative credentials by hitting from the left on Social Security and right on immigration. Perry’s owndisastrous debate performances, however, were the coup de grace.
His final weeks in Iowa constituted of a desperate scramble to regain his footing that included ahumiliating ad mocking his debate performances, a gay-baiting ad that his own pollster derided as “nuts,” and a general departure from the jobs-focused message that he launched his campaign on in favor of gimmicky culture war attacks."
"With Perry’s campaign likely finished, the book is closing on one of the most swift and complete collapses in primary history. For a brief moment, the nomination seemed Perry’s to lose as he entered the race in August leading national and state polls and generating huge excitement among movement conservatives as a credible, electable alternative to Mitt Romney. Instead, Romney effectively raised doubts about his general election viability and conservative credentials by hitting from the left on Social Security and right on immigration. Perry’s owndisastrous debate performances, however, were the coup de grace.
His final weeks in Iowa constituted of a desperate scramble to regain his footing that included ahumiliating ad mocking his debate performances, a gay-baiting ad that his own pollster derided as “nuts,” and a general departure from the jobs-focused message that he launched his campaign on in favor of gimmicky culture war attacks."
True. But, the culture warrior persona of Santorum seemed to work quite well. He clearly drew from Perry's and Bachmann's hard right followers. This is why we should not expect any calming of the culture war rhetoric in the near future; the base likes the war... they just didn't like those warriors.
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