The GOP Primary Catastrophe

Feb 28th, 2012

Mitt Romney may have won yesterday's contests but even one of the victories was something of an embarrassment. Having appealed to the basest anti-immigrant sentiments of the Arizona GOP and with the support of that state's large Mormon community, he won by a comfortable margin. It's the Michigan contest that has Republicans worried. He barely carried his home state.

Brian Montopoli observes:

"Sure, it wasn't exactly a convincing win. And certainly, there will be those who say the fact that he barely won the state where he was born (and where his father was a popular governor) despite significantly outspending his rivals shows that he is the flimsiest of frontrunners.

But so what? Mitt Romney just avoided what would have been a catastrophic defeat, and in doing so set himself on a course to beat back the latest anti-Romney candidate and ultimately secure the Republican nomination for president."

Thank God that we weren't completely humiliated can't exactly be an inspirational analysis for Romney's team.

Wacky GOP Frontrunner Madness

Dec 3rd, 2011

So, Cain is out as of a few hours ago and I suspect this will give Gingrich a tremendous bump... at least through the next several hours. The wild and wacky ups and downs of this primary season are unlike anything we've ever seen.

Peter Suderman of Reason reflects on what is driving the phenomena while commenting on a remarkable interactive graph over at TPM tracking the ups and downs of the candidates in Iowa polling (screen-capped below):

"Fear the boom and bust, indeed.

The national polling is similarly contorted, and it suggests that the Republican party is in a bit of a pickle: They think they can win against Obama in 2012. But they don’t have a candidate they think they can win with.

Try talking to Republicans about Mitt Romney, and you’ll find two things: First, a lot of them don’t want to talk, and when they decline they frequently stress the need for maintaining a good working relationship should Romney become the nominee. Those who do talk tend to say a few cautiously nice things about him. He’s a decent guy. He’s a good manager. He’s intelligent. He knows business. But it’s hard to find party insiders or activists who are genuinely enthusiastic about his candidacy. The people who like him best—self-styled moderates and business folks who shy away from the rougher edges of the party’s activist base—are merely comfortable with him, because they see, or think they see, a familiar type of individual."