The GOP Primary Catastrophe

Feb 28th, 2012

Mitt Romney may have won yesterday's contests but even one of the victories was something of an embarrassment. Having appealed to the basest anti-immigrant sentiments of the Arizona GOP and with the support of that state's large Mormon community, he won by a comfortable margin. It's the Michigan contest that has Republicans worried. He barely carried his home state.

Brian Montopoli observes:

"Sure, it wasn't exactly a convincing win. And certainly, there will be those who say the fact that he barely won the state where he was born (and where his father was a popular governor) despite significantly outspending his rivals shows that he is the flimsiest of frontrunners.

But so what? Mitt Romney just avoided what would have been a catastrophic defeat, and in doing so set himself on a course to beat back the latest anti-Romney candidate and ultimately secure the Republican nomination for president."

Thank God that we weren't completely humiliated can't exactly be an inspirational analysis for Romney's team.

Quote Of The Day - Here and Now Edition

Feb 27th, 2012

"A party of birthers, creationists, theocrats, climate-change deniers, nativists, gay-bashers, antiabortionists, media paranoids, anti-intellectuals and out-of-touch country clubbers cannot govern America."

--Robert Reich

The Final Polls Before Michigan

Feb 27th, 2012

I stand my prediction that Romney will win tomorrow. However, the race with Santorum is very tight.

HuffPo rounds up the final polling:

"Three of the five surveys, by Rasmussen Reports, Public Policy Polling (PPP) and We Ask America, show Romney ahead of Santorum by two to four percentage points. The two others, an automated poll by Mitchell Research and the one live-interviewer survey by the American Research Group (ARG), show Santorum ahead of Romney by one to two percentage points. All five show Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich running far behind. All but the ARG poll were conducted using an automated, recorded voice over the telephone."

As I have previously stated, I just don't think the Michigan base is quite as reactionary as many of the other states. If Santorum does win this thing, though, we can expect a full-on collective panic from the GOP establishment.

The Nevada Caucus And Beyond

Feb 5th, 2012

I am not sure this is actually even news but, yes, Mitt Romney won yesterday's Nevada GOP Caucus. Thanks in no small part to a huge turnout of Mormon voters (roughly 25% of ballots cast) and a ground game he's had in place since before the last Presidential election, there is no surprise in this. It's worth noting that Romney actually received less votes than he did when he took the state in 2008. This exposes the serious disgruntlement among the rank and file that the GOP establishment continues to fail to address.

How Newt Gingrich proceeds, along with his increasingly complicated motivations, is a more interesting story. As Reuters reports, he's still showing no signs of pulling out:

"I'm not going to withdraw," Gingrich told reporters, repeating his frequent vow to continue all the way to the Republican nominating convention in Florida in August. "I'm actually pretty happy with where we are."

Newt Watch - The GOP Establishment Goes For The Kill

Jan 26th, 2012

We are witnessing a whole new level of enmity from the powers that be in the GOP.

Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen write:

"Newt Gingrich better hope voters who lapped up his delicious hits on the “elite media” and liberals don’t read the Drudge Report this morning.

Or the National Review. Or the American Spectator. Or Ann Coulter.

If they do, Gingrich comes off looking like a dangerous, anti-Reagan, Clintonian fraud.

Newt Watch - The End Of The GOP "Establishment"?

Jan 23rd, 2012

Collective insanity is not hard to cultivate given enough time, resources and insulation from rational opposing forces. The GOP built the base which now has them terrified.

Timothy P. Carney writes:

"There may no longer be a Republican establishment powerful enough to move Republican voters en masse. Whatever institutional support the establishment can provide may be outweighed among the conservative base by the Scarlet E stamped on the candidate."

He's right. There has been an imposition of so many narrow and fringe litmus tests that we are seeing the party finally begin to devour itself. The hyper-radicalized base the GOP "establishment" thought they could exploit endlessly has at last arrived at a place where the concept of traditional American politics and its inherent requirement of compromise is deemed traitorous.