The Final Polls Before Michigan

Feb 27th, 2012

I stand my prediction that Romney will win tomorrow. However, the race with Santorum is very tight.

HuffPo rounds up the final polling:

"Three of the five surveys, by Rasmussen Reports, Public Policy Polling (PPP) and We Ask America, show Romney ahead of Santorum by two to four percentage points. The two others, an automated poll by Mitchell Research and the one live-interviewer survey by the American Research Group (ARG), show Santorum ahead of Romney by one to two percentage points. All five show Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich running far behind. All but the ARG poll were conducted using an automated, recorded voice over the telephone."

As I have previously stated, I just don't think the Michigan base is quite as reactionary as many of the other states. If Santorum does win this thing, though, we can expect a full-on collective panic from the GOP establishment.

Romney Watch - A Problem With The Base

Dec 3rd, 2011

Nate Silver examines Mitt Romney's failure to score stronger numbers in the pre-primary polling of Republican voters. Although Silver asks whether or not the candidate has a "moderate problem," what really jumps out is the chart below. The driving force in the race so far has been the extreme, social conservative wing of the GOP. Their dominance explains a lot.