Obama's Poll Numbers

April 10th, 2012

The latest WaPo/ABC Presidential polling is out this morning and Team Romney ought to be heading into crisis mode right about now.

Dan Balz and Joe Cohen write:

"Obama has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care."

That pretty well covers most of the issues. Sure, there are tremendous risks, which the GOP continues to attempt to exploit, that might derail the economy. Nevertheless, in America, the personal is political. On that count, Team Romney has every reason to be preparing for disaster.

Romney's unlikables are at the most dramatic levels of any candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1984.

Obama is definitely vulnerable in certain areas, however, as the report notes:

"If Obama’s views on the role of government are seen more negatively than positively, he has the edge on another aspect of this key debate: Americans by 52-37 percent see "unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy" as a bigger problem than "overregulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity."

This is bad news for the GOP brand itself.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know a lot can happen between now and November.

But this is Mitt Romney. I think the over/under is becoming pretty clear.

Newt's Florida Misfortunes

Jan 30th, 2012

Jonathan Capehart is apparently enjoying every minute of it:

"Hearing Newt Gingrich’s belly-aching about his treatment at the hands of Mitt Romney’s campaign — a stellar two-pronged attack, if they may say so themselves, which they do — caused me to suffer a severe case of schadenfreude. Giggling over someone else’s misfortune is not very kind, and also bad for one’s own karma. But Gingrich is an exception to that rule."

I was thinking the same thing. For "Newt The Destroyer" to be lamenting tactics is a hoot.

Will Newt Score An Upset?

Jan 30th, 2012

As tomorrow's Florida Primary approaches, the conventional wisdom is that Romney is going to blow his opposition, principally Newt Gingrich, out of the water. The latest polling shows a more than 10 point lead for Mitt. There is some truth to Newt's accusation that the Romney camp has been "carpet-bombing" that state with negative ads. The latest data shows Gingrich having been outspent 5 to 1 according to TPM:

"...the total ad spending through Tuesday in Florida by the Romney campaign and its allied super PAC, Restore Our Future, is $15,340,000. The total spending for Gingrich’s campaign and his super PAC, Winning Our Future, is $3,390,000."

I think the final tallies tomorrow could be surprising. Walter Shapiro makes the  case for an upset driven by Florida's elderly GOP base:

"Up until now, Gingrich has been especially successful at appealing to the I-remember-the-invasion-of-Grenada voting bloc. In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to exit polls, there was a powerful, but little-noticed, straight-line trend—the older the voter, the higher the level of Gingrich support. Since Gingrich finished fourth in both Iowa and New Hampshire, this age skew did not fit into a convenient campaign narrative. But in South Carolina, it was key to the Newtonian bomb that leveled the political landscape and sent the GOP establishment into full panic. Gingrich support in the January 21 primary rose from 28 percent among the small slice of under-30 votes to 40 percent among middle-aged Republicans to 47 percent among South Carolina voters mature enough to collect Medicare."

The GOP base is angry and fracturing. In Florida, it is also demographically older than the previous state contests.

If the eleventh hour passes prior to the casting of ballots and Newt doesn't have some extra trick up his sleeve, I think Mitt will still take it. However, I also the margins will be substantially tighter than they look right now.

Obama's Numbers Are Up

Dec 27th, 2011

For the first time since July, Gallup's daily Presidential approval polling has Obama's positives outweighing the negatives, 47% to 45%. A couple of other prominent polls put the approval number slightly higher. It seems fairly obvious that the payroll tax cut fiasco has helped his position.

Screenshot - original, interactive version available at Gallup

Newt Watch - On The Downside

Dec 18th, 2011

Over at TPM, Josh Marshall tracks the latest GOP frontrunner's decline:

"We’re at a critical moment in the 2012 Republican primary cycle. Not only are we less than three weeks before the Iowa Caucuses. We’re also likely to find out in the next several days whether we really have a Romney-Gingrich race or whether Gingrich is yet another flash-in-the-pan whose numbers spiked and then collapsed. The bettors at Intrade have clearly made up their mind for the latter option. A few days ago, Gingrich almost overtook Romney. But tonight the odds give Romney almost a 65% shot at securing the nomination and Gingrich just under a 15% chance."

Marshall has several interactive charts marking Newt's peak and recent descent in the pools.