The Other Debt Problem

Aug 24th, 2011

Here's a staggering visualization of the debt carried by ordinary citizens today.

Ezra Klein points out how this is a game-changer:

"...what distinguishes crises like this one from typical recessions is household debt. When the financial markets collapsed, household debt was nearly 100 percent of GDP. It’s now down to 90 percent. In 1982, which was the last time we had a big recession, the household-debt-to-GDP ratio was about 45 percent.

That means that in this crisis, indebted households can’t spend, which means businesses can’t spend, which means that unless government steps into the breach in a massive way or until households work through their debt burden, we can’t recover. In the 1982 recession, households could spend, and so when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and made spending attractive, we accelerated out of the recession.

The utility of calling this downturn a “household-debt crisis” is it tells you where to put your focus: you either need to make consumers better able to pay their debts, which you can do through conventional stimulus policy like tax cuts and jobs programs, or you need to make their debts smaller so they’re better able to pay them, which you can do by forgiving some of their debt through policies like cramdown or eroding the value of their debt by increasing inflation."

So, we who have studied the ebb and flow of large interconnected financial systems keep beating the drum behind the refrain that "aggregate demand has collapsed." 

Of course central monetary solutions and state investment are required. However, there is simply no arguing with the incredibly powerful and intellectually staggering arguments of the Republican opposition:

"It's Socialist to keep lead out of toys! Freedom means every one can be a millionaire but only if millionaires don't pay taxes! Deep Fried Butter for all, electric cars for none!"

Seriously. You cannot argue with that.

A Modest Proposal To Restore U.S. Economy

Jan 17th, 2011

by Stephanie Baselice

The once mighty US economy remains in deep and dangerous waters. Although the markets have largely recovered from the “Great Recession” the general public remains wary and depressed, which is potentially bad for business. It is also a political minefield. Unemployment floats around 10 % by official standards, closer to 20% if one includes those who have ceased looking for work. Despite modest job gains in 2010 at current rates employment growth will take 5 or 6 years to reach pre-recession unemployment levels of 5-6%. Indeed, it may be that the problem lies deeper and that many of the workers recently laid off during this difficult time were comparatively unproductive and will not need to be replaced. We may well shoulder a 10% unemployment rate far into the future. In any case, once high hopes for “change” have been dashed against the rocks of a deep and extended downturn. Inflammatory rhetoric from liberal elites and labor groups about the possibility of shifting economic focus to risky and untried ventures in “green jobs” puts the American way of life at risk. Quality of life measures rank America lower and lower, and despite relatively high worker productivity, our creative and technological edge is growing dull. Rising nations such as India and China will soon surpass us in critical areas such as inventing new products. Education and healthcare are thankfully still private enterprises, yet they consume increasingly large shares of the economic pie for most families. National solutions to these problems are out of the question, of course. Any reasonable person understands that such solutions must be too expensive and disruptive to the profits of current business leaders to even be considered. Yet recent pro-business political gains may well evaporate if the recovery does not soon produce sufficient job growth to avoid a broad based re-evaluation of the political and economic system.