July 8th, 2011
It is revealing some really serious potential trouble for the Republicans. Perhaps President Obama should pay heed. After all, this is the single most reliable turnout demographic in national elections.
"Whether it’s due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors. In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year (so 4,800 total interviews, including 711 seniors), 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread. But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010 (12,502 interviews, including 1,931 seniors), Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%. Why is this important? Because last year -- when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate -- Republicans overperformed with seniors. According to the exit polls, the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%."
Mr. President, about that little release yesterday regarding social security? Really bad idea.